The TRENDSstation
FASHION ACCESSORIES FORECASTING
ABOUT
Part One:
The Principles of Fashion Forecasting
The TRENDS STATION IS FASHION ACCESSORIES TRENDS FORECASTING FOR DESIGNERS
What is fashion forecasting?
Why it is important?
Who forecasters fashion?
Where do forecasting find their information?
When do forecasting find fashion ideas?
How is forecasting done?
1. What is fashion forecasting?
February 21, 2016
Fashion forecasting is a highly intricate & complex process. It is the practice of predicting
up and coming trends based on past and present style related information the
interpretation and analysis of the motivation behind a trend, and the explanation of why
the prediction is likely to occur. The idea is to translate information and communicate it
clearly through a combining of text and visuals.
Forecasting is the systematic method of looking for pattern, trend, and change in the
product preferences of consumers. The designer/buyer must predict not only the
product preferences of current customers, but also when changes will occur in these
style preferences.
Two aspects of forecasting are needed: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative
aspect is often called fashion forecasting or qualitative forecasting. The buyer must
determine the styles, colours, fabrications, and brands that the consumer will desire.
There features are often associated with the design preferences,
life-style characteristics, psychographics, and other factors in consumer choice.
The quantitative aspect of forecasting is often called sales forecasting, determining
order quantity, or quantitative forecasting. This type of forecasting includes calculating
the numbers of items per style, per vendor, and per colour.
2. Why fashion forcasting is important?
February 21, 2016
Like any business that caters to consumers' ever-changing tastes, the fashion business can be complex and full of uncertainties, dependent on the whims of the consumer. For fashion entrepreneurs, reliable trend direction can lead to early business successes. Understanding, knowing. and predicting the needs and desires of consumers help the designers, retailers, and manufactures make well-informed decisions.
By knowing and understanding the consumer, fashion firms can deliver the right product or service into the market at the right time, the right place, in the right quantities priced for the right customer. For business success, all five elements (product, time, place, quantities, and customer) must come together.
3. Who forecasts fashion?
February 21, 2016
Fashion forecasters are the individuals or teams that strive to identify upcoming trends and deliver the findings to the industries that provide products for the consumers. Designers and manufacturers often rely on the forecaster's information to guide them in the process of creating products that blend the trend information with their own brand image or identity.
These trend forecasters are the prescient individuals who combine knowledge of fashion, history, consumer research, industry data, and intuition to guide product manufacturers and business professionals into the future. They help to maximize the opportunity for triumph in fashion businesses. Their vision helps designers and manufacturers ride the wave of barely perceived novelty to profit and mainstream recognition, In addition to fashion forecasters, a variety of industry professionals participate in trend forecasting as part of their jobs. Many forecasters work in collaboration with other fashion forecasting specialists: teams of trend spotters, researchers, consultants, and fashion forecasting services.
4. Where do forecasting find their information?
February 21, 2016
Curiosity about events, both newsworthy and otherwise, make for a more informed
forecast. With society’s increasing infatuation with celebrities, forecasters track trends and
entertainment, media, the Internet, and the arts. Keeping an eye on such as population
changes family size and spending habits. They monitor innovations in science and
technology. Fashion can be found almost anywhere including events and gathering
places such as:
Fashion shows
Fabric fairs
Red carpet events
Club scene
On the streets
5. When do forecasters find fashion ideas?
February 21, 2016
Traditionally, the fashion industry rolls out new fashions in seasonal fashion events in major cities during the spring and fall. The couture and ready-to-wear runway shows in the major fashion capitals host the designers, the retailers, and the press. In recent years, however, designers have shifted slightly from these seasonal events by increasing the number of showings and hosting events in more cities around the global. Now, designers may show their products in regional trade shows or in their own showrooms, often previewing a new collection each month.
Forecasters can take a short-term view or a long-term view. Predicting trends up to approximately two years in advance is considered short term. In short-term forecasting, themes or concepts are developed, color stories are created, textile and material selections are made, and the look or silhouettes of fashion are identified. Details or specific design features are highlighted.
In long-term forecasting, trends are predicted at least two years ahead but most often five to ten years in advance. This extended type of forecasting seeks to identify the cultural shifts that represent the mood of the era, the kind of ominous thinking or high spirits that can mark a historical period. Long-term forecasting is less about specific details and more about positioning one's business for long-term growth.
6. How is forecasting done?
February 21, 2016
The five processes that are followed to develop a forecast are:
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Researching
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Editing
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Interpreting and analysing
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Predicting
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Communicating
Fashion Items That Changed The World
Part Two:
Theories of Fashion Movement
Diffusion of Innovation: The Adoption Curve
The trickle-down, trickle-up, trickle-across
February 21, 2016
The trickle down theory states that when the lowest social class, or simply a perceived lower
social class, adopts the fashion, it is no longer desirable to the leaders in the highest social
class. Applied to fashion, when a trend becomes popular with the general public, the trend
setters feel they need something new and start a cascade to fade out the old trend.
The trickle up or bubble up pattern is the newest of the fashion movement theories. In this
theory the innovation is initiated from the street, so to speak, and adopted from lower income
groups. The innovation eventually flows to upper income groups; thus the movement is from
the bottom up.
The Trickle Across Theory (Blumer, 1969): fashion is a social process, likely to occur in times of
rapid change. Its the notion that the adoption of a particular fashion will spread horizontally
within several socioeconomic classes at the same time.
CASE-The history of jeans(example of the trickle-up theory)
February 22, 2016
Jeans are one example of a fashion that originated within the lower classes and trickled up to mainstream fashion. The history of jeans in the United States started in 1848 with the start of the California Gold Rush. Jeans, called demin at that time, were first worn by miners who needed clothing that was strong and did not invented blue jeans with Jacob started a wholesale clothing business in San Francisco and invented blue jeans with Jacob Davis in 1873. Decades later, in the 1930s, Hollywood produced numerous western movies, and jeans became popular with the increase in popularity of cowboys wearing jeans. After World War II, jeans were continuously worn by factory workers, and other jean companies such as Wrangler and Lee began to compete with Levi's in the market. The popularity of jeans after the war was largely influenced by the film and music industries. For instance, James Dean, frequently pictured in jeans, became an iconic figure due in part to his role in Rebel Without a Cause. In the 1960s the term 'jeans" was officially adopted by Levi Strauss and Co., and jeans became increasingly popular among university and college students throughout the 1960s and 1970s. The hippie movement led to variations in style, such as embroidered and painted jeans. In the 1980s, for the first time in denim's history, jeans debuted as high-fashion clothing (Diamond,J., & Diamond, E., 1997).
Fashion Cycles
February 28, 2016
Fashion moves in cycles, or it can more accurately be described as moving in waves. Imagine standing at the shoreline watching the waves in the ocean. Some waves are gentle and rhythmic while others are forceful and raging. Some crest at great heights and others form gentle swells. A fashion cycle is the life span of a style or a trend. The fashion cycle is illustrated with a curve to show the movement that travels through specific stages.
Fads, Trends, & Classics
April 04, 2016
Fad:
A fad is any form of behaviour that develops among a large population and is collectively followed with enthusiasm for some time. A fad is said to "catch on" when the number of people adopting it begins to increase rapidly. The behaviour will normally fade quickly once the perception of novelty is gone. An example of a current dress would be the body con dress. The body con dress was founded by Herve Leger in 1985, deigned to hug the body and accentuate the curves. Over the years it has developed an open back or has been cut into the back.
Trend:
A trend is in most ways similar to a fad, with the acceptation that a trend generally has the potential to become a long-term influence on the market. Split dresses are a current trend of 2012 like the one below, but unlike the little black dress, is not a historical style, it is a very modern twist on dresses. It has only been since the late 1900's that dresses have been less conservative and started showing more skin. The split dress started out as a small split at the hem of a skirt and has evolve into a slit that goes almost right up to the hip bone.
Classic Fashion:
Classic fashion styles are the looks that last throughout the ages and appear flattering on almost anyone. despite the decade, figure or fashion, classic styles are always a demonstration of good taste. "The little black dress" is a great example of a classic fashion, it is so simple yet, nearly every woman has one in her wardrobe, and can be made to look flattering on almost any body type. In 1926 “Coco” Chanel published a picture of a short, simple black dress in American Vogue. It was calf-length, straight, and decorated only by a few diagonal lines.
Part Three:
Consumer research-Business begins and ends with the consumer
April 08, 2016
The apparel supply chain has one purpose-to provide an appealing and desirable product to satisfy customer needs, wants, and aspirations. When successful, the connection results in a sale. Because this connection is the purpose of the process, every forecast begins with the customer-in observing the customer's adjustments to the marketplace and in the unexpected ways customers adjust the marketplace to their lifestyles and preferences.
Evolution toward a demand-activated system has four waves(Lewis, 1996a):
-The first wave: building an information infrastructure.
-The second wave: time efficiencies and inventory reduction.
-The third wave: focusing on the consumer.
-The fourth wave: markets of one.
Product development
April 09, 2016
Product development is the process of designing, creating and marketing new productsor services to benefit customers. Sometimes referred to as new product development, the discipline is focused on developing systematic methods for guiding all the processes involved in getting a new product to market.
Fashion Forecasting with Wendy Bendoni
April 10, 2016
Every designer has their own unique combination of tools for designing, creating, and marketing their fashion line. But one common thread that all designers should find necessary is trend forecasting. For those who don’t know what fashion forecasting consists of, it is a resource that can help designers predict what colors, fabrics, trends, and styles will be ‘popular’ in the upcoming seasons.
Now, we understand that some of you feel that you don’t “follow trends”. OK, that’s fine. If you’re not interested in following trends to better understand what consumers will be buying next season, then you surely better be setting the trends, else you really won’t have a successful business. To set trends, you need an understanding of what was popular, what is popular, and what could be popular. Therefore, you need to understand trend forecasting.
I spent some time interviewing trend and lifestyle forecasting expert, Wendy Bendoni of StyleLens andDesign-Options, on behalf of the StartUp FASHION team. Beginning her fashion career as an international fashion director for a forecasting firm, Wendy has gained 21 years of hands on experience. However, this fashion guru does much more than forecasting, she is a professor at Woodbury University teaching and advising Fashion Marketing students and she travels around the world assisting retailers, designers and manufactures in developing the perfect concept.
Wendy has worked at StyleLens as the International Trends Director for 21 years and over 13 years with Design-Options as the lead curator for the LifeStyle report. So with all her fashion experience and more than 45 trips to Europe under her belt, she has truly become an expert in finding the global trends in both lifestyle and fashion.
StUF: Can you explain what trend forecasting entails?
WB: In today’s world, trend forecasting can be divided into 2 categories, one is the consumer trend forecasting, which allows shoppers to do all of the forecasting research themselves through trend forecasting blogs, other fashion bloggers and all the cultural inspiration around.
The second category would be the retailers and designers who hire trend forecasters to do in-depth research for their new upcoming fashion lines. A good fashion forecaster can predict what will be in demand 6 months out and can edit all of the thousands of photographs and trends down to around 25 must have trends (not items). For example, when I go out and look for trends and photos I think, “What are the best 4 bodies that will sell or what are the 2 best textiles that everyone will want.”
StUF: Why is trend forecasting important and how can it help build a successful fashion business?
WB: Basically, if a designer wants to know if their garments or designs are going to sell they have to use trend forecasting to assist them in deciding what is going to provide them with the best profit and what will commercially sell. And with fast fashion (microwave fashion) being more popular, designers need to learn how to work fast and make pieces that will sell tomorrow and further into the future.
StUF: What is a good way for designers who are just starting out to get a handle on trend forecasting as a means of growing their business?
WB: Because using a trend forecasting company is not cheap, I think the easiest way for emerging designers to get a handle on trend forecasting is by looking at style blogs, going to tradeshows or lectures, visiting the Cal Mart and using visual apps like Pinterest and Instagram. It is definitely possible for a designer to do the research for themselves, they just need to pay attention to the huge fashion world around them.
StUF: How do you feel that technology has changed the industry of trend forecasting? Has it been beneficial?
WB: Yes, it was beneficial however it made everyone a forecaster because everything was available digitally on the internet. A specific advancement in technology that completely changed fashion forecasting was when runway shows were made available to consumers 24 hours after the show and now can be viewed instantly by live streaming. These advancements did make us learn to be quicker with our work, but nothing will replace a well-rounded and educated forecaster because retailers and designers need to know what trends and styles will keep them in business 10 years from now.
StUF: Any great resources you can recommend?
WB: The fashion industry offers so many resources for starting designers, and I would recommend that they take advantage of any opportunities that come their way. Specifically, I would recommend tradeshows including MAGIC, textile shows, and any lectures at places like the New York Javits Center or again the Cal Mart. As far as books, my two favorite go-to books are Fashion Zietgeist by Barbara Vinken and Fashion Desire & Anxiety by Rebecca Arnold.
Case study-"Saggy Pants"
